Monday, April 13, 2009

Reading the tea leaves...

It's time to start separating the lies from the truth. I'm going to give my impression on what I think the teams are going to do. This isn't really a mock draft per se.
1. Lions- Matt Stafford, QB (backup plan- Jason Smith, OL)- I'm 90% convinced that Stafford will be signed and selected for the pick. The Lions aren't saying much, but the fact they haven't signed a backup QB speaks volumes right now.

2. Rams- Jason Smith, OL (backup plan- Eugene Monroe, OL)- I'm 100% convinced they will select a tackle, they don't have a good backup plan if they don't. They've made their plans obvious by releasing Pace, and not signing a LT.

3. Chiefs- Eugene Monroe, OL (backup plan- Aaron Curry, LB)- I'm not 100% sure about this, but the recent signing of Zach Thomas is a head scratcher. They could move Albert to LG, and reunite the Virginia left side. Scott Pioli does have connections with Virginia HC Al Groh, and would feel safe with this selection.

4. Seahawks- Aaron Curry, LB (backup plan- Mark Sanchez, QB)- If he's there, I believe the Seahawks are lying in wait to take Curry. Otherwise, this is a QB landing spot.

5. Browns- Michael Crabtree, WR (backup plan- Brian Orapko, DE)- I think the Browns absolutely feel a need to select Crabtree. I also think they could still trade Edwards for picks. They have a pass rushing need also.

6. Bengals- Andre Smith, OL (backup plan- Jeremy Maclin, WR)- The thing about the Bengals is they usually draft linemen high, and they don't scout well.

7. Raiders- Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR (backup plan- Jeremy Maclin, WR)- The Raiders won't select a player like Crabtree they don't have a time for, but they will select a player like DHB that they have top times on. I'm almost ready to call this a lock.

8. Jaguars- Jeremy Maclin, WR (backup plan- Michael Oher, OL)- The Jaguars have had issues with the WR position for a long time now, and this has become the achilles heel of their team. I don't see many room for trades yet, but anything can happen.

9. Packers- BJ Raji, DT (backup plan- Brian Orakpo, DE)- One thing about the current Packers administration is that they will draft a ton of defensive linemen year in and year out. Other wise, they don't show their cards, and play it close to the vest. Raji is a guess, based on their desire to go to a 3-4; where they can put him at nose.

10. 49ers- Mark Sanchez, QB (backup plan- Michael Oher, OL)- I'm either thinking they're playing it coy by deflecting off Sanchez, or they're obviously not and will take Oher. This is a hard read right now, but is also a strong trading spot for the Jets.

11. Bills- Everette Brown, DL (backup plan- Orapko and Oher)- I'm sure the Bills will be looking to upgrade their pass rush, unless they trade their LT; then they would select Oher. If they can sign him, they'll take the best pass rusher.

12. Broncos- Brian Orapko, DL (backup plan- Robert Ayers and Jarron Gilbert, DL)- With everyone convinced the Broncos will want a young QB, I'm not sure that will happen until later in the draft. They have ammo to move up, but I think they will want to draft heavily on the defensive side.

13. Redskins- Michael Oher, OL (backup plan- Ayers and Gilbert)- I'm pretty convinced they'll select Oher if they don't trade back, which they don't usually do.

14. Saints- Chris Wells, RB (backup plan-)- I'm almost 100% sure this will happen. Lock this one up, unless there's a trade involving the Chargers.

15. Texans- Brian Cushing, LB (backup plan- Moreno, RB)- This pick makes sense, although I like Zac Diles. Cushing would play strong, and Diles would backup at both SLB and MLB.

16. Chargers- Knowshon Moreno, RB (backup plan- Tyson Jackson, DL)- This is a talented team without any obvious needs, and they'll have to replace LT2 soon. Sproles isn't an everydown backer in their eyes, and their GM has let that be known.

17. Jets- Josh Freeman, QB (backup plan-)- This is such a natural fit, so I'll call this a lock now.

18. Broncos- Jarron Gilbert, DL (backup plan- Brandon Pettigrew, TE)- Gilbert's star is rising fast, and he's almost a lock to go in the first round. I wouldn't be shocked if the Lions didn't love him at #20. He's very versatile, and has a body he can grow into. Very projectable.

19. Bucs- Robert Ayers, DL (backup plan- Maybin)- This is not a spot where I see Harvin going. Ayers could go much earlier. He's a good player on a bad college team, and those players usually fall.

20. Lions- Rey Maualuga, LB (backup plan- Malcolm Jenkins, Peria Jerry)- The Lions have let it be known how badly they need a MLB by not carrying one on their current roster, so they'll need to draft more than one. If Gilbert is available, I believe the Lions could also pop him, plus there's a strong chance they'll trade down here. I believe they wouldn't be crazy about the players available here.

21. Eagles- Shawn Nelson, TE (backup plan- Jenkins)- The Eagles have a need at TE, and Nelson is an underrated player. Some players are falling.

22. Vikings- Alex Mack, C (backup plan-)- The Vikings need a center obviously, and they do draft linemen high often.

23. Patriots- Aaron Maybin, DL (backup plan- Jenkins)- Still, not a single CB has been taken. There will be a ton taken in the 2nd round, though.

24. Falcons- Brandon Pettigrew, TE (backup plan- Jenkins)- I believe this could be a lock, if Pettigrew is there.

25. Dolphins- Pat White, QB (backup plan- Clay Mathews)- I believe they are crazy enough to pull this off.

26. Ravens- Malcolm Jenkins, CB/S (backup plan- Mathews)- The dam breaks! Finally, a corner! (if he ends up at corner, of course).

27. Colts- Peria Jerry, DT (backup plan- Vontae Davis)- As long as they have a need at DT (which seems like a long time), they'll have to continue to take them. This is a good fit.

28. Eagles- Clay Mathews, LB (backup plan- Barwin)- Mathews has some versatility, and could give the Eagles alot of options. Kind of surprised he's still there.

29. Giants- Kenny Britt, WR (backup plan- Robiskie)- The Giants have been connected with Britt, although they are famous for sticking to their board regardless of position.

30. Titans- Ziggy Hood, DT (backup plan- Barwin)- The Titans have to replace Haynesworth, and Hood's a good player.

31. Cards- Donald Brown, RB (backup plan-)- The Cards have a strong need for a full-time RB. Brown is solid.

32. Steelers- William Beatty, OL (backup plan-)- For a great team, they have an ordinary line. I'd be shocked if they didn't go linemen here.

33. Lions- Sean Smith, CB (backup plan- Connor Barwin, DL)- Smith is versatile, and could be slotted in at corner or safety. He can run with bigger WR's, and will get alot of practice against Johnson.